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 Post subject: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:46 am 
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Below I have posted a redacted version of HMG's Brexit impact study.

There isn't one. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:51 am 
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That surprises you? Think what you want about Brexit, both sides talked a lot of Bovine waste products in that one.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:38 am 
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Well HMG have been giving the impression for the last six months or so that lots of study was being made into the impact. So either they were lying then or they are lying now.

I do feel like a lot of things that should have been discussed before the referendum are only now being brought up. The Irish border for example.

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
Frankly I had enjoyed the war...and why do people want peace if the war is so much fun?


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:56 am 
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Maybe they were lying then AND lying now...


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:58 am 
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My mind is blown! :shock:

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:00 pm 
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Minister Vizzini was asked for comment on this claim:

Attachment:
Inconceivable.jpg
Inconceivable.jpg [ 14.72 KiB | Viewed 362 times ]

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:17 pm 
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May et al have really, really screwed this up. The most scary thing is that Corbyn would almost certainly have done an even worse job!!!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:53 pm 
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It's like the cast of Police Academy have been put in charge of the negotiations.

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:38 pm 
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The only viable alternative to the current plan of agreeing to pay a lot of money to remain in the EU with some letterhead changed is to credibly commit to exit without a deal.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:13 pm 
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David Newton wrote:
May et al have really, really screwed this up. The most scary thing is that Corbyn would almost certainly have done an even worse job!!!!!

I suspect that was her intention.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:05 am 
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HMS Warspite wrote:
The only viable alternative to the current plan of agreeing to pay a lot of money to remain in the EU with some letterhead changed is to credibly commit to exit without a deal.

If I'm understanding this article correctly, that's no longer an option - HMG have committed to essentially staying in the Single Market unless they can strike a better deal and get it agreed with the EU27 before time runs out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:35 am 
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Plus it would likely mean a hard border with the RoI, which is a Bad Thing(TM). WTO rules may also not be good for businesses that need goods from the EU. Perhaps a good example is the MINI. It is assembled at two factories - one in Oxford and one in the Netherlands. Some components do come from outside the EU but by far the majority come from within the EU.
Going to WTO rules would likely mean that building MINIs at Cowley becomes more expensive. BMW might well decide to move the majority of production to the Netherlands because it's cheaper.

OTOH I'm not sure whether staying in the Single Market is a particularly good idea. AFAIK it puts us in the same boat as Norway - we have to comply with all the rules, but have no say in how they are drawn up and we don't get any EU money.

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:28 am 
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Bernard Woolley wrote:
Plus it would likely mean a hard border with the RoI, which is a Bad Thing(TM). WTO rules may also not be good for businesses that need goods from the EU. Perhaps a good example is the MINI. It is assembled at two factories - one in Oxford and one in the Netherlands. Some components do come from outside the EU but by far the majority come from within the EU.
Going to WTO rules would likely mean that building MINIs at Cowley becomes more expensive. BMW might well decide to move the majority of production to the Netherlands because it's cheaper.

OTOH I'm not sure whether staying in the Single Market is a particularly good idea. AFAIK it puts us in the same boat as Norway - we have to comply with all the rules, but have no say in how they are drawn up and we don't get any EU money.


You should team up with Norway, take your oil, and join NAFTA.

We could change the name to North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement.

Jeff

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:37 am 
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Unfortunately the way our economy is set up with the moment the majority of our trade is with the EU, much as I'm sure we'd love to join NAFTA. Right now it looks like we have p*ssed away a massive amount of money which not so long ago we were told we didn't have (the answer given by HMG when anybody asked for more money for anything), unless you were the DUP.

At the moment it looks like we'll be paying more money than we do know to get a worse deal. Only May (or Corbyn) could have managed that. :facepalm:

Where were all these issues and possible consequences during the referendum campaign? We were told it would be quick, easy and that we would not have to pay a penny. Well the last one is true, we're not paying a penny, we're paying 50 billion quid!

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:58 am 
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Bernard Woolley wrote:
Where were all these issues and possible consequences during the referendum campaign? We were told it would be quick, easy and that we would not have to pay a penny. Well the last one is true, we're not paying a penny, we're paying 50 billion quid!

Pretty much all of them were enumerated by the Remain campaign, but were dismissed as "Project Fear" and seem not to have had a significant influence on the vote.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:38 am 
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I suggest you all look up “rebranding” on Arrsepedia, it pretty much suits this topic exactly.

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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:11 pm 
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pdf27 wrote:
Pretty much all of them were enumerated by the Remain campaign, but were dismissed as "Project Fear" and seem not to have had a significant influence on the vote.


Yes, that's correct. The campaign reminded me very much of the Scottish Referendum campaign. In both any mentions of potential downsides were shoured down. The levers on both even used 'Project Fear'.

I'm not sure what Remain could have done to convince the floating voters that decided the result.

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
Frankly I had enjoyed the war...and why do people want peace if the war is so much fun?


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:41 pm 
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Bernard Woolley wrote:
Yes, that's correct. The campaign reminded me very much of the Scottish Referendum campaign. In both any mentions of potential downsides were shoured down. The levers on both even used 'Project Fear'.

I think there were two huge differences between the campaigns. The first one was that Scotland had two centuries of common history within the UK. This means that there was a lot of common emotional ground and of also a lot of people who had moved to Scotland who would primarily identify themselves as British and not Scottish. The second was that Scotland is a net receiver of government funds within the UK which is an obvious advantage nobody can deny.

Bernard Woolley wrote:
I'm not sure what Remain could have done to convince the floating voters that decided the result.


I think that this would have required a different message by British politicians during the previous decades. I think that the British political class always liked to play the "us vs. them" card in regard to the EU and you can't turn back decades of political messages within a few months of campaigning.

But obviously it isn't up to me to decide how British politicians should have presented the EU or how British voters should decide about the membership. But the way we'll split unfortunately will also affect me and I think that the UK government is really making a mess out of it.

I can even understand to some extend why Cameron didn't prepare for a rejection of the EU membership since he wanted the UK to stay. But I can't understand why he walked away on the day after losing the referendum instead of feeling honour bound to manage the difficult situation.

The vote was about leaving the EU but there are obviously many different options, from the Norway option to the hardest of Brexits with us separating without any kind of agreement between the UK and the EU. I think neither the Britsh government nor any of the main parties has a common opinion of what they want. They got some ideas of what they don't want but simply no common idea of what they want to achieve.

In my opinion it was a catastrophic mistake to state after the referendum that Brexit means Brexit and that the UK will leave as soon as possible. The UK should have taken its time, maybe 1-2 years, to decide upon the course it wanted to take. Then it should have left at a time which more or less coincided with the end of the EU budget cycle to minimize the outstanding payments which are a completely toxic topic within the negotiations.

Instead we've got a chaotic mess. The lack of impact studies seems strange. But what I consider really mind-boggling is that the British goverment hasn't decided yet what they consider to be the aim of future negotiations. Nine months after triggering article 50, the UK couldn't state what they want.

Considering the last 9 months which were about the easy part of the negotiations, I think that it's impossibly to imagine that the negotiations will achieve anything but a transitionnal deal. The only alternative would be a hard Brexit.


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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:36 pm 
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Oh the SNP & the CyberNats do deny Scotland is a net receiver of Westminster funds. They argue that the UK as a whole benefits from 'Scotland's Oil'. You and I may think something is a fact but the Nats disagree.

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Adrian Carton de Wiart, VC wrote:
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 Post subject: Re: Brexit impact report
PostPosted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:16 am 
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'I've made up my mind, don't confuse me with the facts!'.

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