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PostPosted: Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:36 am 
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I just came across what I believe is one of those books that puts a lot of things into perspective.

Douglas Murray’s, "The Strange Death of Europe"

He uses an analysis of the recent terror attack in the U.K. to shed light on the passivity and exhaustion that characterized Europe today as totally inadequate to defeat the islamic invasion.

He also asks some pretty good questions for example:
Why must Germany turn to Eritrea for a work force when youth unemployment around the European Mediterranean is between 25 and 30 percent?

If enough people in a society are suffering from a form of exhaustion, might it not be that the society they are living in has become exhausted?”

My Great Uncle who marched into Belleau Wood a private and came out a sergeant always referred to Europe as "Old Europe" and now I know why.

But I Digress

IMO, here is the Money shot.


"But it is also found in the loss of faith in the Christian religion and the decomposition of all national myths before revisionist scholarship. Europe suffers from “an exhaustion caused by a loss of meaning, an awareness that the civilization was ‘no longer accumulating’ but living off a dwindling cultural capital.” Substitute faiths, whether in the high cultural visions of Wagner or the political theories of Marx, have also failed and been discarded....

It may seem like a long way from a conference of German academicians to the morning chat shows on the BBC, but the sentimentality and emptiness of the bubbly TV anchor after the Manchester bombing are directly related to the pseudo-sophisticated nullity of the former. Nothing of substance can be said, because nothing should be known, because to know anything is to become dangerous to oneself and the world. And thus Europe’s story is to enthrone all of its opposite values, where there was national self-assertion, now there is national abasement. Where there were dons who guarded the West’s knowledge, now there are professors who guard against the possibility of knowing anything, where religiosity meant the reign of peace and looking forward to the life to come, now it means a reign of terror and the death of civilization itself. Europe is in a bad way, and I fear that if terror cannot wake it from sleep, neither will elegant books."

Maybe, just maybe Old Europe will do the USA an unintended favor as the canaree in the mine shafts death
gives enough warning for the miners to survive. From my perspective not a bad epitaph for people who utterly failed the Darwin test.
:roll:

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:43 am 
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I don't perceive exhaustion. Europe is still very strong. This is happening because it's positively desired. Same is true in the US BTW.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:01 pm 
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OSCSSW wrote:
I just came across what I believe is one of those books that puts a lot of things into perspective. Douglas Murray’s, "The Strange Death of Europe"

He uses an analysis of the recent terror attack in the U.K. to shed light on the passivity and exhaustion that characterized Europe today as totally inadequate to defeat the islamic invasion. He also asks some pretty good questions for example: Why must Germany turn to Eritrea for a work force when youth unemployment around the European Mediterranean is between 25 and 30 percent? If enough people in a society are suffering from a form of exhaustion, might it not be that the society they are living in has become exhausted?” My Great Uncle who marched into Belleau Wood a private and came out a sergeant always referred to Europe as "Old Europe" and now I know why. But I Digress

IMO, here is the Money shot.


"But it is also found in the loss of faith in the Christian religion and the decomposition of all national myths before revisionist scholarship. Europe suffers from “an exhaustion caused by a loss of meaning, an awareness that the civilization was ‘no longer accumulating’ but living off a dwindling cultural capital.” Substitute faiths, whether in the high cultural visions of Wagner or the political theories of Marx, have also failed and been discarded....

It may seem like a long way from a conference of German academicians to the morning chat shows on the BBC, but the sentimentality and emptiness of the bubbly TV anchor after the Manchester bombing are directly related to the pseudo-sophisticated nullity of the former. Nothing of substance can be said, because nothing should be known, because to know anything is to become dangerous to oneself and the world. And thus Europe’s story is to enthrone all of its opposite values, where there was national self-assertion, now there is national abasement. Where there were dons who guarded the West’s knowledge, now there are professors who guard against the possibility of knowing anything, where religiosity meant the reign of peace and looking forward to the life to come, now it means a reign of terror and the death of civilization itself. Europe is in a bad way, and I fear that if terror cannot wake it from sleep, neither will elegant books."

Maybe, just maybe Old Europe will do the USA an unintended favor as the canaree in the mine shafts death
gives enough warning for the miners to survive. From my perspective not a bad epitaph for people who utterly failed the Darwin test.
:roll:


I'm not sure the 'canary' hypothesis holds true here. Its a general sociological simplification that Europe trails behind the US by about five years in most sociological issues. When Europeans look at the US today, they can see what the dominant trends in their locations will be in five years time. There's quite a few sociology books that go into this but the principle does seem to be sound. If that case holds here, the USA is the canary of Europe not the other way around. Looking at the events in the USA over the last few weeks, I would say they tend to bear the established principle out.

In other words, in five years, Europe will be convulsed the same way the USA is now and its unpleasant to contemplate what the USA will be like if present trends continue.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:49 pm 
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OSCSSW wrote:
Substitute faiths, whether in the high cultural visions of Wagner or the political theories of Marx, have also failed and been discarded....


Not entirely....

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:13 pm 
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Francis Urquhart wrote:
OSCSSW wrote:
I just came across what I believe is one of those books that puts a lot of things into perspective. Douglas Murray’s, "The Strange Death of Europe"

He uses an analysis of the recent terror attack in the U.K. to shed light on the passivity and exhaustion that characterized Europe today as totally inadequate to defeat the islamic invasion. He also asks some pretty good questions for example: Why must Germany turn to Eritrea for a work force when youth unemployment around the European Mediterranean is between 25 and 30 percent? If enough people in a society are suffering from a form of exhaustion, might it not be that the society they are living in has become exhausted?” My Great Uncle who marched into Belleau Wood a private and came out a sergeant always referred to Europe as "Old Europe" and now I know why. But I Digress

IMO, here is the Money shot.


"But it is also found in the loss of faith in the Christian religion and the decomposition of all national myths before revisionist scholarship. Europe suffers from “an exhaustion caused by a loss of meaning, an awareness that the civilization was ‘no longer accumulating’ but living off a dwindling cultural capital.” Substitute faiths, whether in the high cultural visions of Wagner or the political theories of Marx, have also failed and been discarded....

It may seem like a long way from a conference of German academicians to the morning chat shows on the BBC, but the sentimentality and emptiness of the bubbly TV anchor after the Manchester bombing are directly related to the pseudo-sophisticated nullity of the former. Nothing of substance can be said, because nothing should be known, because to know anything is to become dangerous to oneself and the world. And thus Europe’s story is to enthrone all of its opposite values, where there was national self-assertion, now there is national abasement. Where there were dons who guarded the West’s knowledge, now there are professors who guard against the possibility of knowing anything, where religiosity meant the reign of peace and looking forward to the life to come, now it means a reign of terror and the death of civilization itself. Europe is in a bad way, and I fear that if terror cannot wake it from sleep, neither will elegant books."

Maybe, just maybe Old Europe will do the USA an unintended favor as the canaree in the mine shafts death
gives enough warning for the miners to survive. From my perspective not a bad epitaph for people who utterly failed the Darwin test.
:roll:


I'm not sure the 'canary' hypothesis holds true here. Its a general sociological simplification that Europe trails behind the US by about five years in most sociological issues. When Europeans look at the US today, they can see what the dominant trends in their locations will be in five years time. There's quite a few sociology books that go into this but the principle does seem to be sound. If that case holds here, the USA is the canary of Europe not the other way around. Looking at the events in the USA over the last few weeks, I would say they tend to bear the established principle out.

In other words, in five years, Europe will be convulsed the same way the USA is now and its unpleasant to contemplate what the USA will be like if present trends continue.


Absolutely though I'm not sure about the timing. In the past I think the rule was more in the direction of 10 years for US ideas to come to the UK and another 10 years for them to seriously appear on the continent (actually I can just speak for Germany).

With the internet this accelerated but I'm not sure what rule of thumb applies now.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:19 pm 
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OSCSSW wrote:
I just came across what I believe is one of those books that puts a lot of things into perspective.

Douglas Murray’s, "The Strange Death of Europe"

He uses an analysis of the recent terror attack in the U.K. to shed light on the passivity and exhaustion that characterized Europe today as totally inadequate to defeat the islamic invasion.

He also asks some pretty good questions for example:
Why must Germany turn to Eritrea for a work force when youth unemployment around the European Mediterranean is between 25 and 30 percent?

If enough people in a society are suffering from a form of exhaustion, might it not be that the society they are living in has become exhausted?”

My Great Uncle who marched into Belleau Wood a private and came out a sergeant always referred to Europe as "Old Europe" and now I know why.

But I Digress

IMO, here is the Money shot.


"But it is also found in the loss of faith in the Christian religion and the decomposition of all national myths before revisionist scholarship. Europe suffers from “an exhaustion caused by a loss of meaning, an awareness that the civilization was ‘no longer accumulating’ but living off a dwindling cultural capital.” Substitute faiths, whether in the high cultural visions of Wagner or the political theories of Marx, have also failed and been discarded....

It may seem like a long way from a conference of German academicians to the morning chat shows on the BBC, but the sentimentality and emptiness of the bubbly TV anchor after the Manchester bombing are directly related to the pseudo-sophisticated nullity of the former. Nothing of substance can be said, because nothing should be known, because to know anything is to become dangerous to oneself and the world. And thus Europe’s story is to enthrone all of its opposite values, where there was national self-assertion, now there is national abasement. Where there were dons who guarded the West’s knowledge, now there are professors who guard against the possibility of knowing anything, where religiosity meant the reign of peace and looking forward to the life to come, now it means a reign of terror and the death of civilization itself. Europe is in a bad way, and I fear that if terror cannot wake it from sleep, neither will elegant books."

Maybe, just maybe Old Europe will do the USA an unintended favor as the canaree in the mine shafts death
gives enough warning for the miners to survive. From my perspective not a bad epitaph for people who utterly failed the Darwin test.
:roll:


I can't speak for the situation in the whole of Europe but only about Germany. And I'm sure a lot of Germans would disagree with me.

But from my point of view, the old country is the USA. Germany in its current form exists for a maximum of 70 years. And within these short time, we've had more fundamental changes than the US experienced since the civil war.

You can call us stupid or reckless but we aren't old. The USA is the country which discusses what people in the 18th century might have thought when writing down the US constitution. In Germany nobody gives a d*mn about the 18th century if it doesn't happen to be a reason to organize a fest to get drunk.

In a month Germany will vote for a new federal government. In all probability, Germany won't go for change which is the exact opposite of what the US voters did. But the reason isn't that the majority of German voters thinks that they want to slowly sink in obscurity. The reason is that the majority thinks that we're winning. The US voters look at the current situation and think they get cheated because they aren't successful. German voters look at it and see that they're accused of cheating since they are successful.

We might be completely wrong in our assessment but that's what the majority of us believes. You think of your fears and your doubts and interpret Europe according to them.

But we don't act in quiet despair. We act because we think that we can do it, even if it's difficult. The US has become a country which dwells on the risks. You look at things like the EU or the Euro and you're instinctively opposed since it's something new. Your default setting is to predict doom and recommend to stay with what worked for the last centuries.

And maybe you're right and what we try to do will lead to doom. But we don't do it because we're exhausted but because we're as a society are willing to take risks which you can't even imagine anymore. And this risk avoidance can be seen as a realistic evaluation or alternatively as the natural risk avoidance inherent in any organization which has been successful for a long time.

So call us stupid but we're neither suicidal nor exhausted.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:14 pm 
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Hans wrote:

I can't speak for the situation in the whole of Europe but only about Germany. And I'm sure a lot of Germans would disagree with me.

But from my point of view, the old country is the USA. Germany in its current form exists for a maximum of 70 years. And within these short time, we've had more fundamental changes than the US experienced since the civil war.

You can call us stupid or reckless but we aren't old. The USA is the country which discusses what people in the 18th century might have thought when writing down the US constitution. In Germany nobody gives a d*mn about the 18th century if it doesn't happen to be a reason to organize a fest to get drunk.

In a month Germany will vote for a new federal government. In all probability, Germany won't go for change which is the exact opposite of what the US voters did. But the reason isn't that the majority of German voters thinks that they want to slowly sink in obscurity. The reason is that the majority thinks that we're winning. The US voters look at the current situation and think they get cheated because they aren't successful. German voters look at it and see that they're accused of cheating since they are successful.

We might be completely wrong in our assessment but that's what the majority of us believes. You think of your fears and your doubts and interpret Europe according to them.

But we don't act in quiet despair. We act because we think that we can do it, even if it's difficult. The US has become a country which dwells on the risks. You look at things like the EU or the Euro and you're instinctively opposed since it's something new. Your default setting is to predict doom and recommend to stay with what worked for the last centuries.

And maybe you're right and what we try to do will lead to doom. But we don't do it because we're exhausted but because we're as a society are willing to take risks which you can't even imagine anymore. And this risk avoidance can be seen as a realistic evaluation or alternatively as the natural risk avoidance inherent in any organization which has been successful for a long time.

So call us stupid but we're neither suicidal nor exhausted.


Heh, Heh, Heh. Good rebuttal Hans.
Not saying you sold me but you certainly "made a case" as my lawyer buddy would say.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 3:50 pm 
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Quote:
In Germany nobody gives a d*mn about the 18th century if it doesn't happen to be a reason to organize a fest to get drunk.


I'd like to point out that most of the US is drunk every July 4th after an incident in the 18th century.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:23 pm 
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That was a powerful and well-written post, Hans. There is also much truth in it.

However the main problem Germany, as indeed all civilised countries, faces is its inability to replace its population. This issue is not really discussed, so one cannot say that Germans have any definable stance on whether their approach to it is working or not.

It was of course not discussed by Trump either, which is one reason Trump is not likely to be an effective long term corrective to America's problems.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:35 pm 
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One thing to consider is that for Europeans and British the current Islamic terrorist campaign is just not very impressive.

OK what 500 or so people killed last year, this was the casualty rate in half an hour on the somme. Naturally we want to catch and stop these people but it's an annoyance rather than an existential problem, and to inflate its importance only helps the terrorists.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:58 am 
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Timbo W wrote:
One thing to consider is that for Europeans and British the current Islamic terrorist campaign is just not very impressive.

OK what 500 or so people killed last year, this was the casualty rate in half an hour on the somme. Naturally we want to catch and stop these people but it's an annoyance rather than an existential problem, and to inflate its importance only helps the terrorists.

We've also had recent experience of other terrorist campaigns (Northern Ireland, Basque seperatists, etc.) and to be honest the Islamists aren't all that impressive - the UK's death toll to date, for instance, is about equivalent to a bad weekend in Northern Ireland and the disruption is vastly smaller except when flying. They're a confounded nuisance, but very few people view them as a threat to our existence as a country: something which we've all lived through quite recently thanks to the Soviet Union.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:58 am 
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Oi, give Sheffield a break! ;)

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:40 am 
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HMS Warspite wrote:
That was a powerful and well-written post, Hans. There is also much truth in it.

However the main problem Germany, as indeed all civilised countries, faces is its inability to replace its population. This issue is not really discussed, so one cannot say that Germans have any definable stance on whether their approach to it is working or not.

It was of course not discussed by Trump either, which is one reason Trump is not likely to be an effective long term corrective to America's problems.


The Core Problem is this.
Will European Culture reproduce?
Right now it's looking like it won't.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:15 pm 
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HMS Warspite wrote:
That was a powerful and well-written post, Hans. There is also much truth in it.

However the main problem Germany, as indeed all civilised countries, faces is its inability to replace its population. This issue is not really discussed, so one cannot say that Germans have any definable stance on whether their approach to it is working or not.

It was of course not discussed by Trump either, which is one reason Trump is not likely to be an effective long term corrective to America's problems.


We have an overriding advantage over Europe. We have Mexicans, while they have Turks and somalis etc.

I don't think Trump's contribution will be to make the US bottle tight, but to give us the tools to manage the immigrant population. He is a transitional phenomenon. What we will transition to, is anybody's guess.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:33 pm 
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CosmicalStorm wrote:
The Core Problem is this.
Will European Culture reproduce?
Right now it's looking like it won't.

European genes or European culture? What we're seeing is a gradual reduction in the birth rate to below replacement levels across Europe in the majority of those who've been here for more than one or two generations - this leads to a gradual increase of the proportion of the population of migrant ancestry, and hence a gradual reduction in the fraction of the population with European ancestry.
This is very different from European culture however - something which is embraced wholeheartedly by the overwhelming majority of immigrants. A friend of mine is an observant Muslim of Pakistani ancestry. She's also a sergeant in the British Army, has a Facebook account her parents don't know about (or at least not what she puts on there!), is unmarried and a big fan of ice hockey. If that's the future of Europe then I'm looking forward to it.

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While people love apparent conversions - imitation is the most sincere form of flattery and all that - the reality is that culture is transmitted in large part through the family. Certainly in a country with a constitution composed of gentlemen's agreements that exist as vague feelings inside some peoples' heads (that constitution is probably dead walking, by the way - the new people just won't care). A culture that can't reproduce biologically is in an unstable equilibrium. If another comes along that can do so, especially one that can do so very rapidly, it is going to displace the old. Yes, some will convert out of this high fertility culture into the low fertility surrounding culture. By definition, they won't affect the long term population balance very much. The ones who don't convert out will have an outsized impact on the future population balance. Darwinism in action.

In America, it is mostly dissident Christians outbreeding the others - Amish, Mormons, etc. - who are actually more similar both "biologically" and culturally to the founding stock of the country even than the current median citizen. Although the US is looking increasingly Latin American, and will only look more Latin American in the near future, the trend birth rates of Latin Americans in the US are not significantly different to those of other populations, as they don't have a strong and separate ideology. In Europe it's radical Muslims outbreeding the others, who do have a strong and separate ideology, an ideology which is strikingly more natalist than that of the surrounding society.

Apart from wholesale displacement by another world culture, though, there are more subtle considerations. The culture can simply change out of recognition without discontinuity. We observe the little remarked but very real phenomenon that different diasporas perform very differently from one another within a given society, and yet the performance of each diaspora across multiple host nations is eerily similarly. People don't seem to be created equal after all. The chances are that if Europe Africanises "biologically" it will start looking a lot less like Europe and lot more like Barbaros or Detroit, places which notably feel very different to Venice despite being fully within the European "cultural" sphere.

A final problem is generic and doesn't depend upon the cultures of outgoers and incomers being better, worse, or even different. If you are a descendant of people who have been around a while, you will look back on the 100, 200, in the UK even 500 year timescale, and feel ownership; and if you are going to have children, and consider them important, you are going to look forward on the 100, 200, perhaps even 500 year time scale, and plan for this sort of future. If you have no history here, and don't plan to have a future, you will look more to the 1, 5, perhaps 20 year time scale. Is the country an ancient family home, or is it a hotel room? Very different sort of government and culture results.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 3:34 pm 
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HMS Warspite wrote:
While people love apparent conversions - imitation is the most sincere form of flattery and all that - the reality is that culture is transmitted in large part through the family. Certainly in a country with a constitution composed of gentlemen's agreements that exist as vague feelings inside some peoples' heads (that constitution is probably dead walking, by the way - the new people just won't care). A culture that can't reproduce biologically is in an unstable equilibrium. If another comes along that can do so, especially one that can do so very rapidly, it is going to displace the old. Yes, some will convert out of this high fertility culture into the low fertility surrounding culture. By definition, they won't affect the long term population balance very much. The ones who don't convert out will have an outsized impact on the future population balance. Darwinism in action.

In America, it is mostly dissident Christians outbreeding the others - Amish, Mormons, etc. - who are actually more similar both "biologically" and culturally to the founding stock of the country even than the current median citizen. Although the US is looking increasingly Latin American, and will only look more Latin American in the near future, the trend birth rates of Latin Americans in the US are not significantly different to those of other populations, as they don't have a strong and separate ideology. In Europe it's radical Muslims outbreeding the others, who do have a strong and separate ideology, an ideology which is strikingly more natalist than that of the surrounding society.

Apart from wholesale displacement by another world culture, though, there are more subtle considerations. The culture can simply change out of recognition without discontinuity. We observe the little remarked but very real phenomenon that different diasporas perform very differently from one another within a given society, and yet the performance of each diaspora across multiple host nations is eerily similarly. People don't seem to be created equal after all. The chances are that if Europe Africanises "biologically" it will start looking a lot less like Europe and lot more like Barbaros or Detroit, places which notably feel very different to Venice despite being fully within the European "cultural" sphere.

A final problem is generic and doesn't depend upon the cultures of outgoers and incomers being better, worse, or even different. If you are a descendant of people who have been around a while, you will look back on the 100, 200, in the UK even 500 year timescale, and feel ownership; and if you are going to have children, and consider them important, you are going to look forward on the 100, 200, perhaps even 500 year time scale, and plan for this sort of future. If you have no history here, and don't plan to have a future, you will look more to the 1, 5, perhaps 20 year time scale. Is the country an ancient family home, or is it a hotel room? Very different sort of government and culture results.


In Germany we have about 19% of the population with a migrant background,i.e. they or their parents came to German, excluding people from formerly German territory.

I just don't see huge problems of nearly 1:5 of our population not looking back at 500 years of uninterrupted ancestry in Germany.

As for radical Muslims outbreeding Europeans, what percentage of the Muslims in a place like Germany do you consider radical?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:47 pm 
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Hans wrote:
HMS Warspite wrote:
While people love apparent conversions - imitation is the most sincere form of flattery and all that - the reality is that culture is transmitted in large part through the family. Certainly in a country with a constitution composed of gentlemen's agreements that exist as vague feelings inside some peoples' heads (that constitution is probably dead walking, by the way - the new people just won't care). A culture that can't reproduce biologically is in an unstable equilibrium. If another comes along that can do so, especially one that can do so very rapidly, it is going to displace the old. Yes, some will convert out of this high fertility culture into the low fertility surrounding culture. By definition, they won't affect the long term population balance very much. The ones who don't convert out will have an outsized impact on the future population balance. Darwinism in action.

In America, it is mostly dissident Christians outbreeding the others - Amish, Mormons, etc. - who are actually more similar both "biologically" and culturally to the founding stock of the country even than the current median citizen. Although the US is looking increasingly Latin American, and will only look more Latin American in the near future, the trend birth rates of Latin Americans in the US are not significantly different to those of other populations, as they don't have a strong and separate ideology. In Europe it's radical Muslims outbreeding the others, who do have a strong and separate ideology, an ideology which is strikingly more natalist than that of the surrounding society.

Apart from wholesale displacement by another world culture, though, there are more subtle considerations. The culture can simply change out of recognition without discontinuity. We observe the little remarked but very real phenomenon that different diasporas perform very differently from one another within a given society, and yet the performance of each diaspora across multiple host nations is eerily similarly. People don't seem to be created equal after all. The chances are that if Europe Africanises "biologically" it will start looking a lot less like Europe and lot more like Barbaros or Detroit, places which notably feel very different to Venice despite being fully within the European "cultural" sphere.

A final problem is generic and doesn't depend upon the cultures of outgoers and incomers being better, worse, or even different. If you are a descendant of people who have been around a while, you will look back on the 100, 200, in the UK even 500 year timescale, and feel ownership; and if you are going to have children, and consider them important, you are going to look forward on the 100, 200, perhaps even 500 year time scale, and plan for this sort of future. If you have no history here, and don't plan to have a future, you will look more to the 1, 5, perhaps 20 year time scale. Is the country an ancient family home, or is it a hotel room? Very different sort of government and culture results.


In Germany we have about 19% of the population with a migrant background,i.e. they or their parents came to German, excluding people from formerly German territory.

I just don't see huge problems of nearly 1:5 of our population not looking back at 500 years of uninterrupted ancestry in Germany.

OK, 1:5 is not a huge problem, especially when many of them are Poles, especially when many of them are young, and especially when the population bulge of Germans is not yet too sick to work or fight. But is 5:1 a problem in your view? How about 50:1?

The argument that things are OK-ish now is not strong unless you are proposing to end it at the level it is at now. But no one is proposing to end this change today. It's impossibly controversial to do so in Europe. And indeed, the demographic change tends to strengthen the political faction pushing for more and faster change. If it is not OK to extrapolate this trend indefinitely, please tell me what is going to stop it.

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As for radical Muslims outbreeding Europeans, what percentage of the Muslims in a place like Germany do you consider radical?

I have no view on that question, and I don't think it's relevant. The point is that even a small population that can reproduce faster than it loses members to conversion is going to come to dominate.

There were 5,000 Amish in 1920 (0.004% of US population) and today there are 318,000 (0.1% of US population).

Now one can make the argument that with current numbers the time scales for observant Muslims (I will use this terminology because I am not talking about violent people necessarily) actually outbreeding non- and non-observant Muslims are long enough that the surrounding culture could recover its own ability to reproduce. That is true - but is it going to happen? And aren't the people advocating Muslim immigration largely the most resistant to pro-natalist policies in mainstream society?

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 am 
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Hans wrote:
As for radical Muslims outbreeding Europeans, what percentage of the Muslims in a place like Germany do you consider radical?


Several years ago I was hoping this number would be small.
But from for example PEW polling it seems 30 - 50 % support for things like the Islamic State, genital cutting, approval of Sharia laws.

More importantly, the people who support these radical practices are not going to wait for democratic elections.
These are testosterone rich dominant men who intend to make this happen by force if the state allows that. This is happening in large areas of Sweden as we speak, the state is not strong and Young men chase the police away with rains of rocks and sabotage.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:41 pm 
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HMS Warspite wrote:
OK, 1:5 is not a huge problem, especially when many of them are Poles, especially when many of them are young, and especially when the population bulge of Germans is not yet too sick to work or fight. But is 5:1 a problem in your view? How about 50:1?

The argument that things are OK-ish now is not strong unless you are proposing to end it at the level it is at now. But no one is proposing to end this change today. It's impossibly controversial to do so in Europe. And indeed, the demographic change tends to strengthen the political faction pushing for more and faster change. If it is not OK to extrapolate this trend indefinitely, please tell me what is going to stop it.


I guess we don't need to discuss a 50:1 relationship as long as you don't believe that Germany will at some time have more inhabitants than China.

As for your argument that no one is proposing to end this change today, I think we differ rather in our evaluation of what most German political parties or the German population want.

There is no wish to push immigration from Muslim countries. For example Merkel has always and openly been opposed to Turkey joining the EU. And she opposed it at a time when the USA strongly supported the membership of Turkey which would have included an automatic right to move to Germany for 80 million people. And I remember articles posted on this board how Turkey deserved membership and countries as Germany were just their usual dumb self to not understand the opportunity.

Neither did the German government want the large number of refugees to come in 2015. It has worked a lot since then to limit the numbers coming and to increase the ability to send back people whose asylum application has been rejected. And the numbers of people coming to Germany (and to the rest of Europe) have gone down which is seen by the vast majority of parties and people in Germany as something good.

I think that a lot of people evaluate Germany purely based upon their own domestic political issues. They see Germany as an utopia, depending on their views either heaven or hell. But Germany is neither, we're as any other country a mixture of black, white and a lot of grey.

HMS Warspite wrote:
I have no view on that question, and I don't think it's relevant. The point is that even a small population that can reproduce faster than it loses members to conversion is going to come to dominate.

There were 5,000 Amish in 1920 (0.004% of US population) and today there are 318,000 (0.1% of US population).

If I understand your argument correctly, at some time in the future the USA is guaranteed to have a majority of Amish and will outlaw electricity. That's tough.

HMS Warspite wrote:
Now one can make the argument that with current numbers the time scales for observant Muslims (I will use this terminology because I am not talking about violent people necessarily) actually outbreeding non- and non-observant Muslims are long enough that the surrounding culture could recover its own ability to reproduce. That is true - but is it going to happen? And aren't the people advocating Muslim immigration largely the most resistant to pro-natalist policies in mainstream society?

Or the number of children by observant Muslims goes down over time. Or many of their children get assimilated in the German culture. This is what happened with the Turkish immigrant group. And opposite to what some people predicted, we didn't get more and more immigrants from Turkey but numbers have been low during the last decade.


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