History, Politics And Current Affairs

So the Point of Departure questions involving to Iraq and Syria has been nagging at me, like Iraq and Syria succession for instance.

In Syria did Basil or Bassar succeed his father? (Basil in real world died in the 1990s in a suspicious car accident, I was wondering if that changed.)

In Iraq, was Uday the heir apparent until the 1990s when he was almost assasinated (combined with his bizarre behavior), and Qussay was made heir apparent.

So who has heir apparent?

I would also love to see a Syrian Order of Battle.

So far, I've come up with this list

Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact
Romania
Albania (Maybe)
Zimbabwe
Guinea-Bissau
Vietnam
Indonesia
Yemen
North Korea
Venezuela
Nicaragua
Cuba
Iraq


NATO
United States
Canada
Japan
South Korea
Australia
New Zealand
South Africa
Brazil
GCC
Kuwait
Iran (Possibly)

The Cubans and Viets are sitting on the fence, waiting to see who's going to win before deciding what to do, though the Viets are turning a blind eye to SNAF activity out of Cam Ranh Bay.

As for Iraq, it'd be Qusay who would become heir apparent. He was much more "reasonable" by Iraqi standards, didn't display his sociopathic tendencies in public, and I remember one U.S. Government official saying "The difference between the brothers is that Uday kills for fun. When Qusay kills, it's business." Qusay's favorite was feeding political prisoners into a wood chipper-feet first. And though they despised each other, survival kicked in when they were on the run post-OIF, and died together in that house in Mosul.

Not sure about Syria, though. But whoever's in charge in Damascus is still going to be tied to the Russians, period.

Is an Iranian invasion of Iraq still on the table for TLW? I know there was hinting of that in various other stories about the war. Wouldn't be a bad thing to have a greater Persian empire again, especially if it gets rid of Saddam and brings stability to Iraq and the region.

As for Syria, yes whomever succeeded Assad Sr, whether it be Basil or Bassar, Elvis or Bozo the clown they were certainly in Moscow's pocket and orbit.

Did you read the Weekly Standard story about the Syrian Goverment being like the Godfather?

Here is a slightly more accurate list as far as who is who.

Soviet/Warsaw Pact co-belligerents:
* Libya
* Syria
* Iraq
* Venezuela
* North Korea
* Indonesia
* Guinea
* Zimbabwe
* Mozambique
* Angola (??)
* Zambia (??)

Soviet leaning, but not (yet) co-belligerents:
* Cuba
* Vietnam

NATO/US co-belligerents:
* Japan
* South Korea
* Australia
* New Zealand
* Kuwait
* Bahrain (basing)
* Qatar (basing)
* Saudi Arabia (basing, air force only)
* Egypt
* Israel
* South Africa
* Austria (petitioned for NATO membership)
* Finland
* Slovenia
* Croatia

NATO leaning, but not (yet) co-belligerents:
* Sweden (possibly changing very soon)
* Ireland
* Malaysia
* Singapore
* Thailand
* Philippines
* United Arab Emirates
* Oman
* India
* Iran

I wonder if Argentina wants to shake up the world order by invading the Falklands again.

Since they confirmed the USAF presence in the Falklands, I'd guess not. This is WW III and the US is not likely to take a kind view of anyone who appears to stab them in the back. And make no mistake, invading a base area critical to ASAT operations would be a stab in the back. War with the UK would mean war with the United States.

Shouldn't Finland be in here somewhere, too?

Quite right. I went back and added it. Thanks.

What's WW3 in Africa like? Settling old grievances or simple take and hold of some strategic spots?

A little of both: settling old and new scores with Libya (by NATO and by the Egyptians), and trying to grab strategic areas (Libyan oil and South Africa's mineral resources).

The Republic of Ireland is missing from the NATO leaning, but not (yet) co-belligerents list. They're allowing NATO aircraft to transit Irish airspace and land and refuel at Shannon Airport.

Cuba is staying neutral because Fidel and his cronies don't have a death wish. They are only 22 miles away from a carrier air wing which can put an Alpha Strike over Cuba before they have time to react, not to mention all the tactical and strategic air power that the USAF can deploy. Furthermore with the build-up of the US Army the Americans will soon also have spare ground forces that could be used against Cuba.

The Viets are in the middle of a political struggle between the older members of the Politburo, who want to aid their socialist brothers, and the younger members who want to preserve Vietnam's new found prosperity and trade with the rest of the world by staying out. To make things more interesting for them the USS John C. Stennis and her battle group are about to start bombing Soviet bases in the country.
Syria may well be in the war whether it likes it, or not. The USS Ronald Regan battle group will soon be attacking the Syrian ports where the Soviet Fifth Eskadra is based. Plus the IDF and the Syrian armed forces are shooting at each other on the Golan Heights.

The Argentineans would be insane to go after the Falklands right now. There is a sizable USAF contingent based at MPA, and the USN might soon base P-3s there if the Soviets send subs to the South Atlantic. In any invasion of the islands it would be inevitable that Americans and Argentineans would end up shooting at each other, which would be very bad news for Argentina.

and unless i'm blind i think Norway is missing from the NATO/US side as well.

Norway is in NATO, thus counts under "NATO".

DUHHH,..........runs off to dig glasses out of closet.

Wouldn't the Serbs be listed as a Soviet co belligerent? (unless they're in the Pact already).

What about Bosnia?

I have the feeling that the Soviets might have gotten rid of the Assads somehow, given that Saddam Hussein's Iraq was right next to Israel on Assad Sr's list of most hated countries.

Yes, the Serbs (officially Yugoslavia) should be classed as Soviet allies. Bosnia doesn't exist as an independent country in TLW, its still a part of Yugoslavia, even though there was a NATO led peacekeeping force in residence.
Yugoslavia did not start to break-up until Soviet forces moved into the country to get at the NATO forces there and to eventually move on Italy; the Serbian dominated federal government chose to support the Soviets, while most of the republics did not and broke away.

What are the Albanians doing?

They were pretty much the only Communist country besides Cambodia to side with China during the split, and then they decided to split from the Chinese latter on when Deng opened up the PRC. Or did they democratize?

I think they'll be doing nothing, hoping that the war doesn't come anywhere near their borders.

I'd wonder if Basil Assad did meet with his "unfortunate accident", as he was being groomed to succeed his father, and Bashir apparently had no such aspiriations. His resume is a bit unusual for an autocrat: under "Previous Experience" he'd list "Eye Surgeon." (he was in his residency if I'm not mistaken when his brother died). Unlike Iraq, where the two bastard sons of Saddam were rivals and both wished the other dead, Basil was going to succeed his dad if he hadn't been killed in a car crash (whether or not it was a genuine accident is still debated). At least the Syrians would see the oil and other support from Iran dry up once the new Iranian government cut Hezbollah's (and Damascus') purse strings.