History, Politics And Current Affairs

I have some questions about the North Korean Order of Battle.

Considering that the Soviets were retiring the T-72s in favor of T-80s/T-90s in the late 1980s/early-mid 1990s, why not send them to North Korea to replace the T-55s there? They would certainly serve better then the T-55s.

Also considering the MiG-23 and MiG-21s were retired, would alot of them be sent to the NKs? A potent threat to South Korea and Japan would also be if the Soviets gave the NKs the Tu-16 or Tu-22. Or arming the NKs with Su-24s, more Su-25s, and MiG-27s.

Plus would the North Korea navy be expanded to include perhaps a couple of Kilos (adding a better threat) and many more FACs . Think number of islands around South Korea, make a perfect naval ambush for the Allied navies with large numbers of FACs armed with Styx or newer missiles. Or also possibly Tarantul class corvettes, Nanuchka class corvettes, Pauk class corvettes, Grisha Class, etc. Anything the Soviets were willing to get rid of. Turya class torpedo boats, Stenka class, etc.

Are the Ballistic Missiles of North Korea better or worse in TLW?

How about the North Korean Commandoes?

The NKs are a big question mark, no doubt about it.

Ground forces: The NKs do make their own T-62s and a copy of the Chinese YW-531 APC, but one could see some T-72s and maybe BMP-2s being exported: the Koksan and 105th ADs would be likely candidates for such equipment. Additional ATGM (maybe AT-7s), and older SP guns are also candidates. After all, that "Juche" or "Self-Reliance" crap can only go so far.

The Tu-16s and Tu-22s would be certainly at the end of their service lives, and the only place they'd go to is the scrapper's torch. The NKs may have wanted Su-24s, but I don't think the Soviets would've granted such a request-even the Russians in TLW wouldn't want the NKs having an aircraft with a potential nuclear strike mission. Newer versions of the MiG-21 and -23, certainly, along with another regiment's worth of MiG-29s, and Su-25s to replace the Su-7s. The NKs would've tried to develop a missile-delivered nuke in place of gravity bombs-something they can keep hidden from the Russians-who would fear anyone on their border having nukes, as they do IRL.

Getting a Kilo or two does make sense (Red Phoenix had one in the NK Navy), and maybe some Foxtrots to replace the older Romeos. Tarrantuls (perhaps license-built in NK) are a distinct possiblity.

NK SOF is just as dangerous in TLW as they may turn out to be IRL. They're the most highly trained and politically reliable elements in the North Korean Army.

The real life failure to supply the T-72 to North Korea seems to have been more politics of stabilization then any shortage of money models to send them. The ROK mostly had M48 tanks, and the USSR didn’t want to encourage the US to sell them M1s. Afterall if the ROK overruns North Korea after a failed invasion then that places a huge ROK-US Army on the Soviet boarder. As it is North Korea did develop and field a domestic 125mm gun tank called P'okpoong-Ho around 1992. However the real life collapse of the Norks economy meant few appeared until the 2000s. In TLW that economic collapse wouldn’t occur, so North Korea has probably produced a good pile of P'okpoong-Ho units. The P'okpoong-Ho appears to basically be a superfied T-62, but in constricted Korean terrain that’s good enough. I doubt an export model T-72 would do any better.

The USSR built much better versions of the T-72 for itself then it ever exported, the latest of which are redesignated as T-90s. As far as I can tell the USSR never had a single surplus or retired T-72 prior to real life 1991, because it certainly never finished phasing out the far older T-55 and T-62 tanks in the first place. The T-72 was a cheap replacement for those older units which saw colossal production levels. Certainly they would not have surplus T-72s by the late 1980s. Maybe by the late 1990s though this could be the case. But it’d be the older ones they send off, with very poor armoring.

Those crazy North Koreans. A more up to date navy would do them wonders, but also have decent Shore to sea missile batteries would do as well, ie SS-N-22 Sunburns perhaps.

Considering the NK Air Force has to face off against South Korea and American squadrons based there, some beefing up would definitely be in order, such as more MiG-29s, MiG-21s, MiG-23s, and perhaps some MiG-25s as well. Also ALOT more SAM batteries, particularly mobile ones such as the SA-8, SA-11, SA-13, SA-15 would help as well. Plus some battlefield stuff such as Tunguska. Also some SA-10s and SA-12s to protect Pyongyang and the major cities of the North.

T-72 was re-designated the T-90 so as to disassociate itself from the T-72s disastrous performance against the Israelis in the 1980s at the hands of the Syrians and the Iraqis against the Coalition in the Persian Gulf War.

NK Navy Kilos would make alot of sense, as would Foxtrots, considering the shallow water would make US Sonar which is deep water geared much more dicey. In fact they could have a mini-blockade of the port of Pusan and Tsushima Strait. That combined with alot of FACs and the Tarrantuls and Osas would pose a difficult threat for the US. Also consider wikipedia (never a reliable source of info but I digress) says that 73 Osas were exported to North Korea.

Here is what the page on the North Korean Navy (wiki) said for in TRL....

Most NKN vessels are small patrol-size craft unable to operate over 50 nautical miles (nm) from the coast but capable of policing the DPRK's territorial waters. The navy's numerous amphibious craft and midget submarines are intended to clandestinely insert SOF units into the ROK. The DPRK also maintains coastal defense artillery and missile sites. Coastal defense artillery includes 122 mm, 130 mm, and 152 mm systems. Land-based coastal defense missiles include the SSC-2B SAMLET, CSSC-2 SILKWORM, and CSSC-3 SEERSUCKER. The NKN's most capable weapons systems are their approximately 43 guided-missile patrol boats equipped with the SS-N-2A STYX antiship missile (or its Chinese version, the CSS-N-1 SCRUBBRUSH). Though their small size limits operations to coastal waters and calm seas, they have a capability to quickly respond to Combined Forces Command (CFC) shipping approaching the coast. The NKN has 12 OSA-1 guidedmissile patrol boats, 10 DPRK versions of the OSA-1 called the SOJU, and 19 other fast-attack missile craft; the OSA and SOJU are all equipped with four CSS-N-1 missile launchers. The missiles have a maximum range of 25 nm and carry radar or infrared homing seekers. The largest part of the NKN consists of small combatants, including torpedo boats, patrol boats, patrol craft, fast attack craft, and small amphibious landing craft. Of the approximately 200 torpedo boats, nearly half are DPRK-built. Most are equipped with 25 mm to 37 mm guns. The DPRK built at least 62 CHAHO fire-support patrol units. This unique vessel has a multiple rocket launcher in the center of its deck to provide fire support to ground troops or attack surface ships. The DPRK's attack submarine inventory is estimated to include 4 former Soviet WHISKEY Class, 22 Chinese ROMEO Class, and DPRK-built ROMEO Class submarines. The WHISKEYs, acquired in the 1960s, can carry 12 torpedoes or 24 mines. Shortly after delivering four ROMEOs in the early 1970s, China helped the DPRK start its own ROMEO construction program. The ROMEOs are well equipped, have an improved sonar, and can carry 14 torpedoes or 28 mines. To date, the DPRK has indigenously produced over 200 personnel landing craft. This includes approximately 100 NAMPO personnel landing craft based on a former Soviet P-6 torpedo boat hull. The NAMPO has a maximum speed of 40 knots (74 km/h) and a radius of 335 nmi (620 km) at 28 knots (52 km/h). The NAMPOs provide a limited amphibious capability, each carrying up to 30 troops with a basic combat load. Amphibious assaults against CFC probably would be small, clandestine landings involving two to six NAMPO craft; CHAHO or other naval craft could provide fire support. Other amphibious craft include 8 HANTAE medium landing ships, which can carry 3 to 4 light tanks, and approximately 125 KONG BANG amphibious hovercraft. The DPRK has a credible mine warfare capability. There are numerous small surface ships that are capable of delivering mines within both the navy and civilian sectors. Mines will be used to defend against amphibious assaults, defend strategic ports, and provide seaward flank protection for land forces. Defensive mine fields will be monitored by coastal observation teams and radar, and they will be supported by well emplaced artillery and missile batteries. This will make close approach and mine clearing operations extremely hazardous. DPRK has a large inventory of older technology mines, significant historical experience with their effectiveness, and, most importantly, the willingness to use them.

Also a sea denial strategy such as naval mines, while cheap cost wise, would do alot of damage to the Americans and South Korean forces at sea. The North Koreans using alot of their land craft could leapfrog down the coast with their commando units, or land infantry battalions at weak points along the coast. I mean they already wrote about NK suicide bombers, whos to say the NKs aren't crazy enough to do that en-masse along the South Korean coast.

The North Koreans would never get all that lavish a scale of upgrading, after all they hardly even got any SA-6 batteries, let alone more advanced air defense stuff even by the standards of 1980, let alone 1991. I could see some newer SA-10 sites, and some newer fighters but likely not much more.

Escalation concerns in the Korea peninsula side, the USSR never gave away high end weapons for free. It might let you barter sugar or even simpler resources in exchange but you had to give something back. North Korea had few natural resources and mostly got by sending the USSR shoddy consumer products. That never gained them very much credit, and North Koreans ideology was based all around self reliance. So if a weapon and its spare parts and ammo can’t be produced inside the DPRK, no more then handfuls are likely to appear. North Korea basically needs to replace all its mechanized weaponry, and they’d likely place improvements in the Army especially its anti tank capabilities, ahead of very expensive air defense systems. They have ten thousand tunnels per square mile for that.

I would think that the Soviets would not care too much about North Korea. They'd want to keep them enough of a threat to tie down American forces in Korea and Japan, but without expending too much resources.
So what if the USAF massacres the NorK AF, while they're doing that they can't be over West Germany fighting Soviet aircraft. The same is true of their ground and naval forces.

Hopefully the Allied forces will overrun North Korea. I don't think anyone will shed any tears for the demise of Kim Jong-Il. Besides, you mentioned regime change for Iraq, so why not North Korea?

Also consider in Red Phoenix , Kim Jong-Il had a HUGE desire for modern military equipment, which was manifested in the BMP-2, T-72, Kilo Class Submarine, MiG-29, Su-25, etc. North Korea was simply not capable (as in the real world) of producing any of those, in quantity or quality ascribed.

Juche can only go so far, and Kim Jr. probably was willing to sell his country further into the Soviet orbit (as he was in Red Phoenix) for the chance to conquer South Korea.

Knowing the Soviets wouldn't export highest quality weapons, ie most modern aircraft (such as Su-34s, Su-27s, etc), or most modern tanks (T-80s, T-90s, T-95s). They knew they had to settle for second-hand stuff such as T-72s, MiG-23s, etc.

The N.K.s would definitely go for whatever the Soviets would offer them.

MiG-25s would be perfect for North Korea.

Red Pheonix is a novel, remember, I'm not sure I'd use it as a probably guide as to how Kim Jong-Il would act. The North Koreans don't really have anything worth trading for more modern equipment.

Really it doesn’t matter what the north has. If you look at Google Earth you can see that every invasion route the North could take is now just one solid mass of development. The cities and towns have all grown into each other and the North Koreans would have to fight through a non stop street battle for 75 miles straight to outflank Seoul and reach anything like open ground. This is not very good grounds for an offensive even if the two sides had totally equal technology, because if given time to mobilize the ROK has twice as many troops in reserve as the North.

The North does have MiG-29s and Su-25s in real life, though only about ~100 in total.

I’d suggest Proud Legions as a somewhat newer (1999) and more realistic book on how a North Korean invasion might go. The North does get some S-300 batteries and finds a way to break GPS for the first couple days of the offensive, but otherwise forces are not augmented on either side. Nor is the North’s plan to overrun the entire Korean peninsula. It was written by John Antal, who commanded an armored battalion in Korea and the book is basically the story of that battalion in action.

Just how much (and for how long) of the NK arsenal can be expected to work relying on Juche? Juche doesn't fill up the gas tanks and it barely fills the stomache. If you need to make NK a more credible threat have the Soviets extend a reliable supply line to the Little Man. Fill them with food and POL, the NKs will handle the rest.

Juche can only go so far, agreed. Even the PRC insists nowadays on cash payment for weapons purchases, and I doubt the North's counterfeit U.S. dollars would be acceptable. (Roughly half of the North's MiGs are actually PRC copies of the MiG-17, MiG-19, and MiG-21)
And this isn't like trading in a used car for a new: those old MiGs together wouldn't be worth the price of a new regiment of MiG-29s. Ditto for tanks-the T-34s the NKs have still in their inventory, wouldn't be traded in for new T-72s/T-90s. "You have WHAT? Dear Comrade, we just don't take trade-ins. If you want T-72s or T-90s, I'm afraid you'll have to pay. In hard currency."

All this talk of NK Orbat leads me to another, potentially ironic, question: Would the USSR pay its debt to South Korea in the same manner as in OTL? Will we see NK T-55s and T-62s against SK T-80s?

Maybe they should put an ad in the apropriate magazine and offer:
"T34/85 runner, complete, interesting history, for restoration, huge pile of spares available on request, can be shipped worldwide, best offer will be considered"

I assume the North Korea would be using its large number of patrol boats, torpedo boats and missile craft to great effect?

As they have done in recent times against the South Korean navy, see link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Korean_People%27s_Navy#Operations_and_Battles