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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:36 pm 
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JPaulMartin wrote:

They appear to be making incredible progress compared to our testing and development in the 40s and 50s.

Jeff


In the 1940s and 1950s, we didn't know what does and what doesn't work. In 2017, we do.

Makes a YUGE difference.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Last I knew 100 kt is easily in range of a pure fission weapon.

Nuclear tests have a distinct seismic signature, though I don't know how much that will be talked about ainc I have no clue where the finger breaking line is.


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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:09 pm 
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Kunkmiester wrote:
Last I knew 100 kt is easily in range of a pure fission weapon.

Orange Herald Small was 720kt, that was a boosted fission weapon. The Mark 18 was pure fission at 500kt and I don't think that was boosted at all. There's a good chance this is boosted, but not certain - and highly unlikely to be a multistage weapon.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:17 pm 
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In the 40s it was considered some kind of accomplishment to decrypt Enigma messages with substantial external knowledge, though today even a brute force attack has been within the means of a handful of interested volunteers working in their spare time.

The 40s were 70 years ago. Korea is the most intelligent real country in the world (avg IQ 106). With 25 million of these people and total national commitment, there's no doubt the science and engineering is within Korea's means. Whether the quality control for mass production is really within the means of a country with a Marxist-Leninist economic system is less clear. But politically, one bomb is almost as good as a thousand.

The United States has two real options at this point.

The first is to launch a bolt from the blue nuclear decapitation strike on North Korea. I am afraid Conrad Black's belief that this can be cleanly approximated by a Tomahawk strike is untrue and not likely based in any serious technical assessment of how many missiles would be required, or indeed how many targets would have to be hit that are beyond the ability of a Tomahawk to penetrate. This option would be seen as an extreme overreaction by more or less everyone, would certainly result in substantial damage to South Korea, may result in a nuclear counter strike on South Korea, Japan, the United States itself, or even China, could plausibly involve the United States in a nuclear war with China, Russia, or both, and would not noticeably improve the living standards or security of Americans in America. The time window in which the United States can realistically do this is also now quite small and rapidly shrinking. Nonetheless it is an option. It is the military option.

The second is to accept, in whatever ultimate political settlement, the security of the North Korean state and government, and either adequate support for or at least non-interference with its desire for eventual reunification on more or less equal terms between the two Korean states.

I am fond of this quote of Curtis LeMay: "We should decide what we need to do to win quickly and decisively. If we are prepared to do it, we should do it. If we are not, we should walk away." That decision time is now.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:09 am 
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HMS Warspite wrote:
The second (option) is to accept, in whatever ultimate political settlement, the security of the North Korean state and government, and either adequate support for or at least non-interference with its desire for eventual reunification on more or less equal terms between the two Korean states.

A settlement based on reunification can only happen if South Korea is dissolved and North Korea takes control of the entire Korean peninsula.

Handing South Korea to the North Koreans is the ultimate act of appeasement. But it only guarantees that North Korea will then have direct access to all of the industrial resources which now belong to South Korea and can use those resources to greatly expand its nuclear weapons program.

The final end game crisis point has not yet arrived. That point will come only after an effective strategy of imposing tighter sanctions denies the North Koreans the income they need to keep their game of international blackmail in full operation.

Once the Norks start selling their nuclear weapons technology to anyone with enough cash to keep them in business as the world's nuclear arms merchant, then the military option will be the only one left.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:11 pm 
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You have perhaps read that rather uncharitably. Non-interference can mean strict neutrality. If the US declares strict neutrality, the outcome won't be northern conquest of the south. The south can defend itself, and indeed the south with nuclear weapons of its own has a more robust defence than the south with a US 'guarantee'.

I see no evidence that the North Korean regime is fragile. Nor that, given it already has nuclear weapons, we should wish it to be.

If we are not willing to disarm them - and that means nuclear first strike - then we should seek to make them stable, and we must either at least pay lip service to an equitable resolution to the Korean situation or else declare no interest in the resolution of the Korean situation.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:36 pm 
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Do you really think there's an equitable resolution to the Korean situation that leaves the current leadership of the DPRK in power?

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:41 pm 
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It is not logically possible to reunify Korea while leaving both sides' governments fully in power.

I do think it is possible to resolve the conflict whereby the current DPRK leadership remain politically powerful for one or two more generations, then after that remain safe and rich for the forseeable future. But it's probably not possible with US involvement.

One can argue that that is not equitable because the DPRK leadership are evil guys, and in that case they aren't punished. OK. But the cost of punishing them is nuclear war. Again, make the call or walk away.

Current US policy seems primarily driven by inertia rather than calculation, and tends to push the US into a position where it has but no choice to escalate the conflict more than it wants to, but less than it needs to win.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:39 pm 
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Moscow analyst: Russia has made North Korea’s rocket program possible

In two articles published online this week, Moscow analyst Aleksandr Nemets details the evidence many have assembled showing that Moscow is heavily involved in both the rocket program of North Korea and Pyongyang’s “aggressive plans” to use it against other countries, Euromaidan Press reports.

It is absolutely essential, Nemets says, that South Korea, Japan, and the United States understand that everything that is now brewing in the region is what Moscow or more precisely Putin wants and not some rogue action by Kim Jong Un as many imagine, according to Euromaidan Press.

In the first of these articles, Nemets traces the history of Russian deliveries of missiles to North Korea in recent decades and the ways in which, apparently with some Russian assistance, Pyongyang has modified them, and then offers three main conclusions:

First of all, he says, “the development of the relatively primitive ballistic rocket Hwasong-10, one that corresponds to the level of Soviet rockets of the 1960s, from the beginning in 1992 until the series of tests in 2016, lasted 24 years.” What the North Koreans came up with was “a copy of the Soviet R-27 rocket.”
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Soviet R-27 (SS-N-6 Serb) SLBM and North Korean Hwasong-10 also known as BM-25 and Musudan (Image: Steven Zaloga, 2010)

In some ways, it was not even as good, but it is important to note that the Hwasong-10 does not contain anything original,” a pattern that speaks to ‘the low scientific-technical potential of North Korea,” Nemets argues.

Second, he continues, “even this primitive result would have been impossible without very intensive Russian assistance, especially in 2015-2016. Why did Moscow feel compelled to provide this? Obviously not for money … Beyond any doubt, Moscow’s goal was the infliction of maximum harm on America.”

And third, “the Hwasong-12 ballistic rocket, which was successfully tested in May 2017 and which has a range of more than 4000 kilometers and is capable of striking Guam and Alaska, is a much-improved version of the Hwasong-10, although it is based fundamentally on the very same technologies.”

Taken together, Nemets says, all this shows that “it is absolutely excluded that the weak industrial and scientific-technical system of North Korea could have created the Hwasong-12 in any case so quickly. If the Russian share in the Hwasong-10 was conditionally more than 80 percent, then in the case of the Hwasong-12, it approached 100 percent.”

In the second article, the Moscow analyst broadens his focus in order to suggest that the timing of North Korea’s actions, its missile launches and threats in particular, reflects less a Pyongyang calendar than a Moscow one intended by Putin to do maximum harm to the United States.

Nemets argues that the North Korean actions happened precisely as Russian-American relations were deteriorating, when Moscow’s expectations for a new deal with Donald Trump were replaced by a recognition that Washington was going to take a hard line against Russia for its interference in American elections and its aggression in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials have pointed to these links, but their words have been dismissed by many who believe that Kyiv is simply trying to blacken Russia’s reputation (and respond to Moscow’s claims that North Korea’s missiles came from Ukrainian factories) in order to win more support from the West, the Moscow analyst suggests.

But now a Russian official has implicitly made the connection between Moscow’s intentions and Pyongyang’s actions, Nemets says. Sergey Ryabkov, Russia’s representative to the United Nations, said that “the government of the Russian federation had been forced to react to the additional dislocation of (powerful) American THAAD complexes in South Korea and Japan that are capable of intercepting ballistic rockets.”

Put in more normal language, the Moscow analyst says, this shows that “Moscow, infuriated by the fact that [North Korea’s] neighbors don’t approve [Pyongyang’s] nuclear and thermonuclear tests and the launch of rockets flying over the territory of Japan, was simply forced to do something.”


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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:23 pm 
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Laura Rozen, AI-monitor:
Quote:
A think tank contact working on national security issues tells me: Major DC conservative think tanks that are linked into the Trump team are quietly preparing studies on the aftermath of war with North Korea...A couple of the shops with big teams of analysts.
There's a lot of interest in studies on how to defeat insurgencies led by former regime types armed with chemical and biological agents.
Dusting off the books from pre-Iraq War days on how to counter those types of insurgencies.
Analysts w/ experience dealing w/counter insurgency in Iraq are being reassigned from GWOT type work to North Korea Contingency Planning.
Not sure contingency planning signals intent. But contingency thinking.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:12 pm 
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The it's out could mean it's suppose to put pressure on China to act. It could also mean someone is trying to make sure Trump doesn't take action due to the price.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:03 am 
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Thinking about the unthinkable is a perfectly reasonable course of action.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea & Think Tanks
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:10 am 
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Theodore wrote:
Thinking about the unthinkable is a perfectly reasonable course of action.
Got to agree with our famous Historical author Theo. When I was TAD to the War College (supporting a war game with a heavy SBU/Riverine/Littoral Scenarios) I was told by an old and trusted "O" type shipmate that there were plans to invade everyone and that included Canada.

I couldn't get aboard Bunker Hill fast enough when I got the chance to escape that "August" Naval Institution. I'd take LANTFLT NGFS off Viegas with very raw CIC Team any day. :roll:

but I digress.

Given the number of brass POTUS Trump has in key positions I'd be greatly surprised if the Think Tanks were not concentrating heavily on various scenarios. You folks do know those Think Tanks make a lot of money selling their analysis to government and business don't you? Why don't you ask our own Skipper FU?
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:31 am 
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It's called "The Business" not "The Charity".

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 Post subject: Re: Korea & Think Tanks
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:26 am 
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OSCSSW wrote:
Theodore wrote:
Thinking about the unthinkable is a perfectly reasonable course of action.
Got to agree with our famous Historical author Theo. When I was TAD to the War College (supporting a war game with a heavy SBU/Riverine/Littoral Scenarios) I was told by an old and trusted "O" type shipmate that there were plans to invade everyone and that included Canada.


That's what staff officers do. They make plans.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:45 pm 
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NORTH KOREA: Country moving mobile missile launchers & preparing hard sites in last 48 hours, per 3 US senior military officials - @NBCNews

What would preparing hard sites entail? I wonder if it's going to be an inert RV test in direction of Guam.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:09 pm 
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Chairman Rick wrote:
NORTH KOREA: Country moving mobile missile launchers & preparing hard sites in last 48 hours, per 3 US senior military officials - @NBCNews

What would preparing hard sites entail? I wonder if it's going to be an inert RV test in direction of Guam.


If they do that it's war: no ifs, no buts. Anything gets fired in the direction of Guam and it will be assumed to be live.


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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:13 pm 
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David Newton wrote:
Chairman Rick wrote:
NORTH KOREA: Country moving mobile missile launchers & preparing hard sites in last 48 hours, per 3 US senior military officials - @NBCNews

What would preparing hard sites entail? I wonder if it's going to be an inert RV test in direction of Guam.


If they do that it's war: no ifs, no buts. Anything gets fired in the direction of Guam and it will be assumed to be live.


LeMay nods.

Mike

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:14 pm 
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David Newton wrote:
Chairman Rick wrote:
NORTH KOREA: Country moving mobile missile launchers & preparing hard sites in last 48 hours, per 3 US senior military officials - @NBCNews

What would preparing hard sites entail? I wonder if it's going to be an inert RV test in direction of Guam.


If they do that it's war: no ifs, no buts. Anything gets fired in the direction of Guam and it will be assumed to be live.


Agreed, and I can't really think of many other scenarios for a multiple launch. Perhaps an overflight of Japan again daring for an intercept attempt. I doubt we'd get them all and that would provide a propaganda point for these bastards.

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 Post subject: Re: Korea
PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:36 pm 
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Why am I getting a strange feeling of Summer, 1914 . . . . .

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